Tuesday, December 1, 2009

November Oscar Predictions

Dear God, its already December! Its been way too long since my last post, and I apologize for taking so long; exams are coming up soon and I have been overwhelmed with work. I wanted to have explanations for my nominee choices, but that may have to wait until December's; I will, however, post a few thoughts in this one. And soon I will also post my reactions to the Gothams, the Satellites, the Spirits, the Grammys, and the NBRs (whew!). Best Picture An Education The Hurt Locker Precious The Lovely Bones Up Up in the Air Invictus Nine Inglourious Basterds The Last Station - I don't think that A Serious Man really stands a chance anymore, so I'm betting on The Last Station instead. Invictus and The Lovely Bones are also iffy right now for me. Best Actor Morgan Freeman, Invictus Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine George Clooney, Up in the Air Colin Firth, A Single Man Hal Holbrook, That Evening Sun - Morgan Freeman's frontrunner status is dropping precipitously, but he'll still be nominated. Now with Jeff Bridges gaining heat, I'm doubting the Holbrook nomination, though I'd rather have him in the running too. Day-Lewis is iffy, since most of what I've seen of him in Nine is just him smiling. Best Actress Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious Abbie Cornish, Bright Star Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones - With Amelia bombing, Hilary Swank is down (but not necesserily out; see Cate Blanchett's Elizabeth: The Golden Age nomination in 2007). However, I think Ronan's nomination might just be wishful thinking on my part, and Helen Mirren might actually have a better shot for The Last Station. Best Supporting Actor Alfred Molina, An Education Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones Christopher Plummer, The Last Station Matt Damon, Invictus - I'm doubting Matt Damon will squeeze into this category now, given Invictus' lackluster preview response. Here's hoping Anthony Mackie takes his place for his performance in The Hurt Locker. Best Supporting Actress Mo'Nique, Precious Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air Julianne Moore, A Single Man Penelope Cruz, Nine - Thanks to Marion Cotillard's move to the leading category, I think Cruz will have to carry the torch for all of the Nine women. However, I still think this category will be Mo'Nique and the four women that lose to her. Best Director Clint Eastwood, Invictus Lee Daniels, Precious Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Rob Marshall, Nine - There's no doubt that the last four will make it, but I have doubts now about Eastwood: the Academy loves him, but they're not above excluding him (see his "sure-thing" nomination last year). If he falls, either Quentin Tarantino or Michael Hoffman will probably replace him, with a chance of Lone Scherfig or Peter Jackson.

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