Emmy Nominations Thursday

The Emmys are always a difficult awards show to understand. Whereas the Oscars usually at least nominate some of the best movies of the year, the Emmys routinely ignore television's best series and performers in favor of good, or once good, shows that they have already nominated. It's easy to understand why voters would choose to do this, since there are so many programs on television nowadays, but I believe the purpose of the Emmys is to honor the best of that season. Therefore, if, say, 30 Rock, though routinely good, had a good season but six other comedies had better seasons, then those six should be rewarded instead of 30 Rock. But such is voter ennui.

I think this year, though, we'll see the inclusion of some new series in the nominations. Here's my predictions.

BEST DRAMA SERIES

Mad Men

Breaking Bad

Dexter

Lost

The Good Wife

House

Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and Dexter are all critical darlings and multiple nominees, so they'll return, especially after having great seasons. House will manage to squeeze in because it submitted "Broken" as its FYC episode, which was the best in an uneven and mediocre season. Lost was probably polarizing this season, especially with the finale, but I think enough voters like the show to give it one last nomination (though I doubt a win is in the cards). That leaves The Good Wife getting the sixth spot; the freshman show had excellent reviews and great ratings, making it more likely to return than, say, middling seasons of 24 or Big Love.

BEST COMEDY SERIES

30 Rock

Glee

Modern Family

The Big Bang Theory

Curb Your Enthusiasm

The Office

30 Rock is a lock, namely since its the three-time winner of this category. Glee and Modern Family were the big freshman breakouts, and will justly be rewarded with nominations here. Voters like both Curb Your Enthusiasm (which returned this year after a long hiatus) and The Office, so both shows should be nominated again. The Big Bang Theory grew into one of television's biggest hits this year, and though I am by no means a fan of Chuck Lorre's shows, this one will probably earn the sixth spot.

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Hugh Laurie, House

Simon Baker, The Mentalist

Michael C. Hall, Dexter

Timothy Olyphant, Justified

The first five in my list are all virtual locks for this category, as all are returning nominees and all of them turned in strong work this season. The sixth spot is trickier: I'm going with Olyphant's superb performance as Raylan Givens, but Bill Paxton (Big Love), Kiefer Sutherland (24), Peter Krause (Parenthood), and even Ray Romano (Men of a Certain Age) have good shots at that last spot.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Steve Carrell, The Office

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Tony Shalhoub, Monk

Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm

Matthew Morrison, Glee

Baldwin, Carrell and Parsons are pretty much locks to return to this year's race. The other three, however, as less certain. Shalhoub is an Emmy favorite, and since this is his last chance to compete for Monk, I feel comfortable that he'll be nominated. David is also a former nominee in this category, and he's received good notices this year, so he seems like a safe bet. Morrison's the shakiest of them all: despite being the lead, he isn't given much to do in a lot of episodes, but if he submitted one of his standouts, he'll make the cut. Otherwise, the oft-troubled Charlie Sheen could (unlikely) make his way back into the category.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Glenn Close, Damages

Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

January Jones, Mad Men

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Anna Paquin, True Blood

This is a packed category this year, but four of these are certain to be nominated: Close, Hargitay, Jones, and Margulies. Sedgwick is a multiple nominee, and it would not be surprising to see her here again. The sixth spot has several strong contenders: Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad), Lauren Graham (Parenthood), Holly Hunter (Saving Grace), Regina King (Southland), Melissa Leo (Treme). But Paquin was a Globe nominee, and if the voters choose to honor True Blood in any major category, it'll be this one.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Toni Collette, United States of Tara

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Lea Michele, Glee

Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds

Courteney Cox-Arquette, Cougar Town

Collette, Falco, and Fey are sure to be nominated again. Michele is likely to be nominated off of her momentum from Glee (as well as her excellent performance). Parker, though Weeds has had an uneven season according to most fans and critics, has received mostly good notices, so it's possible that she'll return. And even though Cox-Arquette was never nominated for Friends, expect the buzz and strength of Cougar Town (which, if you haven't heard, is getting a new name soon) to give her the edge.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Terry O'Quinn, Lost

Michael Emerson, Lost

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

John Slattery, Mad Men

Martin Short, Damages

Andre Braughter, Men of a Certain Age

Lost has a huge number of worthy contenders, with O'Quinn and Emerson most likely to be nominated (with Nestor Carbonell as an outside chance). Otherwise, this category should see the return of Paul and Slattery, as well as the inclusion of Emmy favorite Braughter and Short, who takes on a surprisingly dramatic role in Damages and played it to perfection.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother

Rainn Wilson, The Office

Tracy Morgan, 30 Rock

Cryer, who won this last year, will probably be back, as will favorites Wilson and Harris. Though Morgan didn't have a standout episode this year, he did have fantastic moments (the post-Garfield-audition scene was ad-libbing brilliance), and that should get him in. The rest of the category should be filled out with Modern Family cast members, particularly Burrell and Stonestreet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Ed O'Neill takes Morgan's spot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

Rose Byrne, Damages

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy

Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy

Lisa Edelstein, House

Since three of last year's nominees are not returning for various reasons, this category is wide open this year. Baranski is an Emmy favorite, and has gotten rave reviews for her work on The Good Wife, so count her in. The Grey's Anatomy girls (Oh and Wilson) are perennial nominees, and they will return this year. Byrne and Moss are also favorites from favorite shows, so they're nominations are safe bets as well. The last spot will mostly likely go to Edelstein, who got an excellent showcase episode this year and will finally be rewarded for the great work she does on House. But I wouldn't be surprised in Christina Hendricks from Mad Men grabbed that spot either.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Julie Bowen, Modern Family

Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Jane Lynch, Glee

Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty

Lynch is probably the only definite lock in this category, especially since many consider this to be her win. Since the Modern Family cast submitted themselves completely into supporting, expect multiple nominations for the show here too, particularly in the form of Bowen and Vergara. Otherwise, the rest of the category will be filled out with old favorites Krakowski, Wiig, and Williams.

So what do you think? Look for the nominations and my reactions here starting Thursday.