Emmy 2010 Preview: Leads in Miniseries/TV Movie

Here we go: the last two preview posts before the ceremony Sunday night. I've decided against live-blogging the event this year, opting instead for a recap and analysis on Monday.

BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES/TV MOVIE

Jeff Bridges, A Dog Year

Sir Ian McKellen, The Prisoner

Michael Sheen, The Special Relationship

Dennis Quaid, The Special Relationship

Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack

This should be interesting. Sheen and Quaid will probably vote split. McKellen isn't really likely either, since his miniseries wasn't exactly a critical smash. And the only way I can see Bridges triumphing here is if he's still riding the wave of support from his Oscar win (and I highly doubt he is). Pacino's the easy favorite, I believe: its a meaty role (Jack Kevorkian), and they've honored him in this category before (for Angels in America).

BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES/TV MOVIE

Maggie Smith, Capturing Mary

Joan Allen, Georgia O'Keeffe

Judi Dench, Return to Cranford

Hope Davis, The Special Relationship

Claire Danes, Temple Grandin

Allen was a Globe nominee, so there may be a little bit of support for her still. As much as I love Smith and Davis, I think they'll both be also-rans this year. Danes stunned everyone with her performance in Temple Grandin, and she's the odds-on favorite to win (which would somewhat make up for the My So-Called Life snub in the '90s). But don't count out Dench: she could easily be the spoiler here.