Wednesday, January 12, 2011

So the Golden Globes are on Sunday...


Today's kind of a slow news day, and I haven't seen any films to talk about, so let's do Golden Globe predictions instead! Those are fun, right? Besides, its time to do them anyway. Just remember that the Globes tend to behave differently from the critics groups, so take that for what its worth.
BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Conventional wisdom says that The Social Network will totally own this category, since its lost this prize only a few times so far this season. But only three of the last 10 winners here have gone on to win the Oscar, so it may actually be in the film's best interests to take one for the team here. Besides, the Globes tend to gravitate toward more "traditional" fare, which is why I'm going with The King's Speech as the likely winner. I wouldn't count out The Social Network or The Fighter, though.
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
This one belongs to Portman, hands-down. However, if all those ads for her upcoming No Strings Attached prove more detrimental than beneficial, this could likely go to Williams or Lawrence, but I doubt they will.
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
The Globes will most likely stick with Firth for this prize; its a high-wattage, actor-y performance, and that's the kind of thing they like. If anyone's got anything to prove here, though, its Gosling and Wahlberg; a win for either one of them would be the kind of push their campaigns need, though its unlikely.
BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The Kids Are All Right
RED
The Tourist
I will be very, very pissed off if anything other than The Kids Are All Right wins this bafflingly ridiculous category this year. Especially if its Alice in Wonderland or The Tourist (which I have yet to see, so shouldn't judge, but based on reviews this seems pretty bad).
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love & Other Drugs
Angelina Jolie, The Tourist
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Emma Stone, Easy A
Bening has this one in the bag. Though I'm still really glad that they took the time to recognize the great work of Hathaway, Moore, and Stone.
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Johnny Depp, The Tourist
Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love & Other Drugs
Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack
I want to pretend that they'll reward Giamatti, Spacey, or Gyllenhaal, especially since the latter's work has been sadly ignored for most of the awards season. Sadly, this is most likely just a dream of mine; count on Depp to take home the prize for his Alice abomination, I mean, "performance."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
This is most likely going to be a litmus test of sorts to see who has the momentum, given that current attention-holder Hailee Steinfeld wasn't nominated. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they recognize Adams for playing against type. Any one of them could be the spoiler, though Weaver needs it the most at this point.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
I'm going to go out on a limb again here. Bale has been the talk of the town, and Rush has soaked up whatever attention hasn't been lavished on Bale. But the Globes are usually good for at least one "sympathy" award, and now that Douglas has beaten cancer (hooray!), I'm going to say that he gets this award.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despicable Me
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Toy Story 3 is like an avalanche: there's no stopping it.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful (Mexico)
The Concert (France)
The Edge (Russia)
I Am Love (Italy)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Wouldn't it be great to see I Am Love win this, since it most likely won't receive a single Oscar nomination? I think it will win this one.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
The Globes will probably stick with everyone else's opinion and give this to Fincher, though Aronofsky or Hooper or even O. Russell could spoil, depending on how much love there actually is for their films.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Seidler, The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
.
Sorkin's not going to lose this. I may not have been the biggest fan of the film, but I do appreciate his terrific screenplay, with its crackling dialogue, ambiguity, and narrative structure.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Danny Elfman, Alice in Wonderland
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception
I suspect that the gorgeous work that Desplat did won't be ignored. But I'd be willing to say that Zimmer's a favorite here too.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Bound to You," Burlesque; Music by Samuel Dixon, Lyrics by Christina Aguilera & Sia Furler
"Coming Home," Country Strong; Music & Lyrics by Bob DiPiero, Tom Douglas, Hillary Lindsay, Troy Verges
"I See the Light," Tangled; Music by Alan Menken, Lyrics by Glenn Slater
"There's a Place for Us," The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader; Music & Lyrics by Carrie Underwood, David Hodges, Hillary Lindsay
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque; Music & Lyrics by Dianne Warren
This is definitely going to go to one of the Burlesque numbers, and my money's going on "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me."
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - DRAMA
Boardwalk Empire
Dexter
The Good Wife
Mad Men
The Walking Dead
The Globes tend to break from what the Emmys go for here, and they like to honor new series before the Emmys get the chance. That's why I'm going with Boardwalk Empire over Mad Men. There's some talk that it could go to The Walking Dead, but that doesn't seem likely to me (too genre).
BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Piper Perabo, Covert Affairs
Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
I'm going it Moss for this one: there's a lot of praise for her work this year, and I'm willing to bet that the Globes will want to honor her first.
BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Hugh Laurie, House
Its hard to tell what they're looking for here, since their opinions differ so much from what the Emmys go with. I'm going to go with Hamm, though Cranston or Buscemi could spoil.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES - COMEDY/MUSICAL
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
The Big C
Glee
Modern Family
Nurse Jackie
Last year they liked Glee; this year they'll most likely go with Modern Family, the Emmy winner.
BEST ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY/MUSICAL
Toni Collette, United States of Tara
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Laura Linney, The Big C
Lea Michele, Glee
At this point, I can't really see Linney not winning this. They like to honor movie stars who go to television, and she had the most attention-grabbing role.
BEST ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY/MUSICAL
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Steve Carell, The Office
Thomas Jane, Hung
Matthew Morrison, Glee
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
I'm guessing they'll follow suit and reward Emmy winner Parsons with the Globe.
BEST MINISERIES/TV MOVIE
Carlos
The Pacific
Pillars of the Earth
Temple Grandin
You Don't Know Jack
I'm finding it hard to keep straight whether Carlos is a movie or a miniseries. No confusing releases ever! Still, I think they'll go with The Pacific as their winner.
BEST ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES/TV MOVIE
Hayley Atwell, Pillars of the Earth
Claire Danes, Temple Grandin
Judi Dench, Return to Cranford
Romola Garai, Emma
Jennifer Love Hewitt, The Client List
Danes is still an unstoppable force for this role when it come to awards, so I'm going to say the other four ladies don't stand much of a chance.
BEST ACTOR IN A MINISERIES/TV MOVIE
Idris Elba, Luther
Ian McShane, Pillars of the Earth
Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack
Dennis Quaid, The Special Relationship
Edgar Ramirez, Carlos
Ramirez has picked up several critics' prizes, but I doubt that he'll prevail over the legendary-star-status of Pacino.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS ON TELEVISION
Hope Davis, The Special Relationship
Jane Lynch, Glee
Kelly MacDonald, Boardwalk Empire
Julia Stiles, Dexter
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
They could go with Lynch again, but I'm betting they give the prize to Vergara instead for her brilliant work on Modern Family.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR ON TELEVISION
Scott Caan, Hawaii Five-O
Chris Colfer, Glee
Chris Noth, The Good Wife
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
David Strathairn, Temple Grandin
Stonestreet won the Emmy, but I'm guessing that Colfer will be the winner since he's been more or less the only consistently good thing about this season of Glee.
Who do you think is going to win? Do you even care? Sound off!

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